Changes Ahead: Trump, the Aging Economic Cycle and Property Market Impacts

This analysis was prepared by Colliers’ national research team, with input from our new Market Intelligence panels composed of top Colliers professionals throughout the U.S. practice. We take stock of key economic and market indicators as well as the likely impacts of policies anticipated to be enacted by the incoming administration and Congress.

Key takeaways:

• The Trump administration will inherit a strong economy poised for continued, if moderate growth. The planned stimulus package of tax cuts and infrastructure spending should boost growth, but at the expense of greater inflation and interest rates.

• Trump’s broader economic platform should benefit key sectors such as energy, finance and pharmaceuticals, but will likely reduce economic growth overall and raise odds of a recession by 2019.

• The office sector is expected to finally reach a new peak in 2017, but gains are slowing as tech moderates while the financial sector retrenches.

• Consumers are as strong as ever. Expect a solid holiday retail season, but not necessarily at the mall, as shoppers increasingly buy online from the comfort of their couches—or wherever they happen to be.

• Across all product types, demand has shifted to cities over suburbs, as millennials demand more accessible and dynamic neighborhoods in which to work, live and play. Even industrial tenants are seeking more central inner-metro locations to better serve online shoppers.

• Supply is a growing concern in the multifamily sector in a few key metros, but overall construction is exceptionally muted for the latter stages of an expansion. As a result, existing buildings and owners stand to benefit.

• Property fundamentals will continue to improve at a moderate pace for the near term, but investors should prepare for the inevitable end-of-cycle impacts.

For more details, download the State of the U.S. Market and 2017 Outlook.

Andrew J. Nelson is Chief Economist for Colliers International in the United States. Based in San Francisco, he covers a mix of general economic topics as well as related issues that bear on the performance of property markets.